Pork Checkoff Industry News

The pork market continues to trade sideways on ample supply and, more importantly, a weaker than expected demand across a range of items.

Despite 2% decline in slaughter anticipated by the USDA, pork supply coming to market continues to be far higher that expected.

Hog slaughter was near 2.7 million head last week as producers sought to schedule hogs that were backed up due to winter storms and holidays. Slaughter is expected to be lower this coming week, in part because some plants will be dark on Monday for MLK holiday.

USDA hog inventory survey suggests that hog slaughter will be down 2% y/y through May, but then increase about 1% to 1.5% for the summer months. The increase in the breeding herd and more pigs per litter should increase supplies in the second half of 2023.

Slaughter is at annual highs, while retail demand for fresh pork has yet to kick in. Ham prices have eased as Christmas orders have been filled.

Slaughter numbers should be near the highest levels for the year and will be at least 100k head/week lower in Jan/Feb. This should bolster prices for some fresh pork items, such as loins and butts.

Tight supply remains despite packers ramping up slaughter ahead of the upcoming holidays.

Fresh pork prices continue to be pressured lower due to increased competition from chicken breasts at retail and seasonal decline in demand.

Slaughter is down almost 5% from 2019, exports to Mexico are record high, turkey prices are record high and cold storage inventory is down double digits. Expect ham prices to remain firm through the holidays this year.

Hog breeding herd as of September 1 was estimated down from the previous quarter as well as 0.6% lower than a year ago. The pig crop through next Feb is expected to decline y/y, suggesting no supply growth through next summer.