Pork Checkoff Industry News

For the second consecutive week, hog slaughter was well below year ago levels. Packers have had disruptions in slaughter both due to maintenance and operational reasons.

It is not unusual for processing pork prices to rebound after the holidays as plants return to full production schedules. That combined with two short production weeks has resulted in tighter spot availability and higher prices, especially hams.

The decline in hog breeding herd will continue to impact growth potential and heighten disease and feed cost risks for 2027.

Disease-related supply concerns have faded, while lower feed costs have encouraged heavier hog weights, adding modestly to pork supplies.

Pork supply is set to tighten sharply over the next three weeks. Slaughter fell below 2.4 million last week and the Memorial Day holiday will further disrupt production and reduce spot availability.

Spring and summer lean hog futures have lost momentum as the feared “marketing hole” has not materialized. Hog slaughter since early March is running slightly above last year and carcass weights remain steady, keeping pork supplies adequate and the pork cutout stuck below $100/cwt.

Export and domestic demand are broadly stable. Recent ham market volatility highlights how quickly export buyers step in on price breaks, especially with concerns about tighter supplies later in spring/summer.

Supply recovery after short Easter production is limited, with weekly slaughter expected to settle around ~2.4 million head into Memorial Day, 100k head less than March levels.

Fresh pork appears to be in a better position, with loin, butt and rib prices well above year ago. High beef prices are expected to drive more retail features in Q2.

Processed items are largely following the seasonal trend although ham values are expected to have more upside price risk as processors work to fill Easter orders. With Easter a bit earlier this year, the peak in the ham market is expected sometime in the first two weeks of March.