Pork Checkoff Industry News

Soft demand and seasonally higher pork supplies are pressuring fall hog prices. Explore pork market trends and the outlook for early 2027.

Hog slaughter is expected to run about 1.5% below year ago levels through fall/winter. Higher feed costs and poor margins are likely to encourage producers to market hogs more aggressively, thus keeping weights at or below year ago levels.

Hogs and pigs report expected to show no change in the breeding stock. If true, that would put the breeding stock still about 1% below year ago levels.

The long holiday weekend impacted spot market trade towards the end of the week and contributed to the sharp price declines across several products.

It used to be that pork used for further processing was gaining value at a faster pace than the overall cutout. That appears to have changed and the weakness has been particularly evident this year.

Pork demand, both export and domestic, has far underperformed expectations and is well below year ago. Slaughter in the last four weeks is down 2.5% vs year ago and the the pork cutout last week was down 14% vs year ago.

For the second consecutive week, hog slaughter was well below year ago levels. Packers have had disruptions in slaughter both due to maintenance and operational reasons.

It is not unusual for processing pork prices to rebound after the holidays as plants return to full production schedules. That combined with two short production weeks has resulted in tighter spot availability and higher prices, especially hams.

The decline in hog breeding herd will continue to impact growth potential and heighten disease and feed cost risks for 2027.

Disease-related supply concerns have faded, while lower feed costs have encouraged heavier hog weights, adding modestly to pork supplies.