Pork Checkoff Industry News

Short holiday weeks and winter storms across the Midwest have impacted processing and resulted in tight spot supplies. Slaughter in the last three weeks has been under 2.3M head/week, about 300k head less per week than in early December.

Hog slaughter continues to outpace estimates and, based on the latest ‘Hogs and Pigs’ survey results, slaughter should remain higher y/y through the spring and summer.

In the last three weeks hog slaughter has been near 2.7 million head, well above expectations. We estimate that Sep-Nov slaughter was 1.7% higher than a year ago, well above the 1% increase indicated in the Mar-May pig crop.

Demand remains a primary challenge that could impact the pork market in 2024.

USDA thinks that pork production in 2024 will be up 1.9% from 2023 despite talk/expectation for a smaller breeding herd. For now it appears USDA thinks productivity gains will more than offset the decline in the breeding herd.

Pork supply remains ample and it is only expected to increase in the next few weeks. Hog slaughter approaching 2.7 million head plus steady increases in hog carcass weights means market is well supplied and product available.

Market has become somewhat disjointed. Futures are at contract lows and the wholesale price index has been steadily declining for the last two month. However, not all pork prices are down. Loin prices continue to hold up and brisket bones have been steadily moving higher.

Hog slaughter was lower than the previous week but for the next 6-7 weeks slaughter should hover around 2.6 million head, helping bolster supply and pressure prices lower. Futures were lower earlier in the week, largely a knee-jerk reaction to the results of the September inventory survey. In the near term, however, wholesale pork prices have been more resilient than markets were expecting.

Hog inventory report to be released 9/28 is expected to show breeding herd down 1.5% to 2% vs. year ago. The reduction may be offset by continued productivity gains but overall supply for next year is expected to be about the same as it was in 2023.

Hog slaughter last week was less than expected, in part because heat and big slaughter before Labor Day resulted in tight spot hog supply. Slaughter may remain below year ago levels next week but eventually it is expected to jump over 2.5m head later in the month and into October.